MLB Trade Rumors just looked a possible Max Scherzer extension and highlighted a few really good points:
1) While both parties avoided arbitration with a $3.75MM contract the other day that may not be the end of the contract talks since clubs generally start extending contracts now.
2) Last year 24 players signed extensions between the date arbitration numbers were exchanged and the end of April.
3) Players statistically similar to Scherzer are Gio Gonzalez, Justin Masterson John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza and Johnny Cueto.
4) Advanced metrics such as xFIP (3.70), FIP (4.14) and SIERA (3.63) suggest Scherzer’s 2011 ERA of 4.43 was higher than expected for someone with his peripheral stats.
Okay, so with Verlander, Fister, and Turner under team control for the next three full years locking up Scherzer seems to be a realistic idea, and coming off the year that he had, locking him up this off season may be the most cost effective option.
Ben Nicholson-Smith suggests a 4 year $30MM extension, and a year-by-year breakdown that looks like this: $3.5MM in 2012, $6MM in 2013, $8MM in 2014, $12MM in 2014 and a modest buyout for one or two additional club option seasons.
Johnny Cueto recently signed a $27MM extension and Gio Gonzalez just signed a 5 year $42MM deal. A 4 year $30MM deal would put Scherzer in between both.
Say what you want about Scherzer, he’s been a quality pitcher over the last two years and well worth an extension of that amount.