Earlier today Fangraphs published Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which has formerly been published on his own site, Baseball Think Factory. There are some really interesting names to look at, including Andy Dirks, Bruce Rondon, and Eugenio Suarez (who, if you haven’t heard of him before, shame on you because he’s got the best name ever and is now comped with Ian Desmond!). I’ve gathered the bulk of the projections, but not all. You can check the original stuff here for some more analysis and a pretty depth chart put together by Carson Cistulli.
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I don’t just like to look at projections, I like to see what happens when the actual stats come in, which is what we now have from the 2012 season. I’ve posted the ZiPS from Prince Fielder or Anibal Sanchez separably since they were both with other teams to start the year, and while their ZiPS would change due to ballpark factors I had them sitting there so I figured I might as well put them in. I’ll leave it to you to form your own opinions, but not without inserting Dan’s comments from that projection – noting how he ends it with the words better to allow Turner to dominate in AAA…and risk the difficult decision involving too many starters rather than too few.
This year the name is no longer Turner, but Smyly.
The Tigers aren’t really a 95-win team – there are a lot more players likely to have worse seasons than better in 2012 – but while the Tigers would have an issue repeating in the AL East, there aren’t any teams in the AL Central that are all that scary. The team’s top-heavy and has some depth issues that need to be taken care of prior to the season as they can’t simply enter another season with Brandon Inge at 3rd and Ryan Raburn is a Plan B or C starter, not a Plan A one. Another starter (bringing back Edwin Jackson?) would be incredibly useful. The team *wants* to enter the season with a Verlander-Fister-Scherzer-Porcello-Turner, but I still think Jacob Turner should start the season at AAA. Porcello’s just not that dependable and it’s better to allow Turner to dominate the upper minors for a few months, something he hasn’t done yet, and risk the difficult decision involving too many starters rather than too few.
2012 ZiPS
Fielder’s Actual.
| G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 690 | 83 | 182 | 33 | 1 | 30 | 108 | 85 | 84 | .313 | .412 | .528 | .940 |
| 2012 Actual Stats | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Avila | 116 | 434 | 42 | 89 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 0 | 61 | 104 | .243 | .352 | .384 | .736 | |
| Jhonny Peralta | 150 | 585 | 58 | 127 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 49 | 105 | .239 | .305 | .384 | .689 | |
| Miguel Cabrera | 161 | 697 | 109 | 205 | 40 | 0 | 44 | 139 | 4 | 1 | 66 | 98 | .330 | .393 | .606 | .999 | |
| Andy Dirks | 88 | 344 | 56 | 101 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 53 | .322 | .370 | .487 | .857 | |
| Austin Jackson | 137 | 617 | 103 | 163 | 29 | 10 | 16 | 66 | 12 | 9 | 67 | 134 | .300 | .377 | .479 | .856 | |
| Brennan Boesch | 132 | 503 | 52 | 113 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 54 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 104 | .240 | .286 | .372 | .659 | |
| Delmon Young | 151 | 608 | 54 | 153 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 74 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 112 | .267 | .296 | .411 | .707 |
2012 ZiPS SP
| 2012 Actual SP | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 17 | 8 | 2.64 | 33 | 33 | 238.1 | 192 | 70 | 19 | 60 | 239 | 160 | ||
| Max Scherzer | 16 | 7 | 3.74 | 32 | 32 | 187.2 | 179 | 78 | 23 | 60 | 231 | 113 | ||
| Rick Porcello | 10 | 12 | 4.59 | 31 | 31 | 176.1 | 226 | 90 | 16 | 44 | 107 | 92 | ||
| Doug Fister | 10 | 10 | 3.45 | 26 | 26 | 161.2 | 156 | 62 | 15 | 37 | 137 | 122 | ||
| Drew Smyly* | 4 | 3 | 3.99 | 23 | 18 | 99.1 | 93 | 44 | 12 | 33 | 94 | 106 | ||
| Anibal Sanchez | 4 | 6 | 3.74 | 12 | 12 | 74.2 | 81 | 31 | 8 | 15 | 57 | 113 |
2012 ZiPS RP
| 2012 Actual RP | Age | W | L | G | GF | SV | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Valverde | 34 | 3 | 4 | 3.78 | 71 | 67 | 35 | 69.0 | 59 | 29 | 3 | 27 | 48 | 112 | |
| Joaquin Benoit | 34 | 5 | 3 | 3.68 | 73 | 18 | 2 | 71.0 | 59 | 29 | 14 | 22 | 84 | 115 | |
| Octavio Dotel | 38 | 5 | 3 | 3.57 | 57 | 15 | 1 | 58.0 | 50 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 62 | 119 | |
| Brayan Villarreal | 25 | 3 | 5 | 2.63 | 50 | 15 | 0 | 54.2 | 38 | 16 | 3 | 28 | 66 | 161 | |
| Phil Coke* | 29 | 2 | 3 | 4.00 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 54.0 | 71 | 24 | 5 | 18 | 51 | 106 | |
| Duane Below* | 26 | 2 | 1 | 3.88 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 46.1 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 109 | |
| Luis Marte | 25 | 1 | 0 | 2.82 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 22.1 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 152 | |
| Darin Downs* | 27 | 2 | 1 | 3.48 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 20.2 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 123 | |
| Collin Balester | 26 | 2 | 0 | 6.50 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 18.0 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 66 | |
| Luke Putkonen | 26 | 0 | 2 | 3.94 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 16.0 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 109 | |
| Al Alburquerque | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0.68 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13.1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 641 | |
| Casey Crosby* | 23 | 1 | 1 | 9.49 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12.1 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 46 | |
| Jacob Turner | 21 | 1 | 1 | 8.03 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12.1 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 54 | |
| Adam Wilk* | 24 | 0 | 3 | 8.18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11.0 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 53 | |
| Daniel Schlereth* | 26 | 0 | 0 | 10.29 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7.0 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 43 | |
| Thad Weber | 27 | 0 | 1 | 9.00 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4.0 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 51 | |
| Jose Ortega | 23 | 0 | 0 | 3.38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 142 |
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
