Walkoff Woodward

Concerning Detroit Baseball
January 24, 2013

Comprehensively Looking at Detroit’s ZiPS For the Future and Yesteryear

Earlier today Fangraphs published Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which has formerly been published on his own site, Baseball Think Factory. There are some really interesting names to look at, including Andy Dirks, Bruce Rondon, and Eugenio Suarez (who, if you haven’t heard of him before, shame on you because he’s got the best name ever and is now comped with Ian Desmond!). I’ve gathered the bulk of the projections, but not all. You can check the original stuff here for some more analysis and a pretty depth chart put together by Carson Cistulli.

2013 ZIPS2013 ZIPS CNTD2013 ZIPS Final2013 Pitching ZIPS2013 Pitching ZIPS CNTD 2013 Pitching ZIPS Final

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I don’t just like to look at projections, I like to see what happens when the actual stats come in, which is what we now have from the 2012 season. I’ve posted the ZiPS from Prince Fielder or Anibal Sanchez separably since they were both with other teams to start the year, and while their ZiPS would change due to ballpark factors I had them sitting there so I figured I might as well put them in. I’ll leave it to you to form your own opinions, but not without inserting Dan’s comments from that projection – noting how he ends it with the words better to allow Turner to dominate in AAA…and risk the difficult decision involving too many starters rather than too few.

This year the name is no longer Turner, but Smyly. 

The Tigers aren’t really a 95-win team – there are a lot more players likely to have worse seasons than better in 2012 – but while the Tigers would have an issue repeating in the AL East, there aren’t any teams in the AL Central that are all that scary.  The team’s top-heavy and has some depth issues that need to be taken care of prior to the season as they can’t simply enter another season with Brandon Inge at 3rd and Ryan Raburn is a Plan B or C starter, not a Plan A one. Another starter (bringing back Edwin Jackson?) would be incredibly useful.  The team *wants* to enter the season with a Verlander-Fister-Scherzer-Porcello-Turner, but I still think Jacob Turner should start the season at AAA.  Porcello’s just not that dependable and it’s better to allow Turner to dominate the upper minors for a few months, something he hasn’t done yet, and risk the difficult decision involving too many starters rather than too few.

2012 ZiPS

2012 ZIPs

Prince Fielder

Fielder’s Actual.

G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
162 690 83 182 33 1 30 108 85 84 .313 .412 .528 .940
  2012 Actual Stats G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
  Alex Avila 116 434 42 89 21 2 9 48 2 0 61 104 .243 .352 .384 .736
  Jhonny Peralta 150 585 58 127 32 3 13 63 1 2 49 105 .239 .305 .384 .689
  Miguel Cabrera 161 697 109 205 40 0 44 139 4 1 66 98 .330 .393 .606 .999
  Andy Dirks 88 344 56 101 18 5 8 35 1 1 23 53 .322 .370 .487 .857
  Austin Jackson 137 617 103 163 29 10 16 66 12 9 67 134 .300 .377 .479 .856
  Brennan Boesch 132 503 52 113 22 2 12 54 6 3 26 104 .240 .286 .372 .659
  Delmon Young 151 608 54 153 27 1 18 74 0 2 20 112 .267 .296 .411 .707

2012 ZiPS SP

2012 ZIPS SP

Anibal Sanchez

     2012 Actual SP W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
    Justin Verlander 17 8 2.64 33 33 238.1 192 70 19 60 239 160
    Max Scherzer 16 7 3.74 32 32 187.2 179 78 23 60 231 113
    Rick Porcello 10 12 4.59 31 31 176.1 226 90 16 44 107 92
    Doug Fister 10 10 3.45 26 26 161.2 156 62 15 37 137 122
    Drew Smyly* 4 3 3.99 23 18 99.1 93 44 12 33 94 106
    Anibal Sanchez 4 6 3.74 12 12 74.2 81 31 8 15 57 113

2012 ZiPS RP

2012 ZIPS RP

   2012 Actual RP Age W L ERA G GF SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
  Jose Valverde 34 3 4 3.78 71 67 35 69.0 59 29 3 27 48 112
  Joaquin Benoit 34 5 3 3.68 73 18 2 71.0 59 29 14 22 84 115
  Octavio Dotel 38 5 3 3.57 57 15 1 58.0 50 23 3 12 62 119
  Brayan Villarreal 25 3 5 2.63 50 15 0 54.2 38 16 3 28 66 161
  Phil Coke* 29 2 3 4.00 66 11 1 54.0 71 24 5 18 51 106
  Duane Below* 26 2 1 3.88 27 7 0 46.1 49 20 6 8 29 109
  Luis Marte 25 1 0 2.82 13 4 0 22.1 19 7 4 9 19 152
  Darin Downs* 27 2 1 3.48 18 5 0 20.2 18 8 1 9 20 123
  Collin Balester 26 2 0 6.50 11 2 0 18.0 14 13 5 11 12 66
  Luke Putkonen 26 0 2 3.94 12 6 1 16.0 19 7 0 8 10 109
  Al Alburquerque 26 0 0 0.68 8 0 0 13.1 6 1 0 8 18 641
  Casey Crosby* 23 1 1 9.49 3 0 0 12.1 15 13 2 11 9 46
  Jacob Turner 21 1 1 8.03 3 0 0 12.1 17 11 4 7 7 54
  Adam Wilk* 24 0 3 8.18 3 0 0 11.0 21 10 4 3 7 53
  Daniel Schlereth* 26 0 0 10.29 6 2 0 7.0 14 8 3 5 6 43
  Thad Weber 27 0 1 9.00 2 1 0 4.0 10 4 0 2 1 51
  Jose Ortega 23 0 0 3.38 2 0 0 2.2 3 1 1 1 4 142

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

  • http://www.facebook.com/DarthIcarus Jason Kulczycki

    My favorite comp is Luis Marte to Bob Gibson

    • http://www.walkoffwoodward.com/ Josh Worn

      Yeah that wins it.

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