2012 Prediction Series: Jhonny Peralta

Jhonny Peralta was traded to Detroit on July 28, 2010 for cash and minor league left hander, Giovanni Soto. While Soto is a promising (now 20 year old) arm, there is no doubt that the acquisition of Peralta solidified a very important position that had basically been seen an empty period since Alan Trammell retired in 1996.

While Peralta was an all-star last year, it’s not like he’s a 23 year old phenom, or a well versed public voice on the team (what ahre yhou thalking ahbout?). He is therefore a relatively ignored player amongst the common fan. He will turn 30 this year and has nine stolen bases in his career, which doesn’t help his narrative. However, while understandable, it’s not completely justified to simply toss aside Peralta’s impact on the team.

What he needs to work on

As stated above, Peralta is not exactly a spring chicken. He’s not Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, Ryan Raburn, or even Delmon Young, the players we have looked at so far in the series, who are all young or have an obvious flaw that needs to be worked on. Peralta is an established, professional hitter, and he’s already shown you what he is going to give you year in and year out with very few surprises. However, in looking at his advanced stats there were a few anomalies last year that I felt could, at least, be discussed. .

Year PA SO% BB% SO/BB LD%
2003 (CLE) 270 24.1% 7.4% 3.25 15%
2004 (CLE) 28 21.4% 10.7% 2.00 32%
2005 (CLE) 570 22.5% 10.2% 2.21 17%
2006 (CLE) 632 24.1% 8.9% 2.71 18%
2007 (CLE) 647 22.6% 9.4% 2.39 20%
2008 (CLE) 664 19.0% 7.2% 2.63 20%
2009 (CLE) 645 20.8% 7.9% 2.63 18%
2010 (CLE) 615 16.8% 8.6% 1.94 23%
2010 (CLE) 373 18.5% 8.6% 2.16 23%
2010 (DET) 242 14.1% 8.7% 1.62 25%
2011 (DET) 576 16.5% 6.9% 2.38 19%
9 Yrs 4647 20.6% 8.4% 2.45 19%
MLB Averages 17.4% 8.5% 2.04 19%

What he needs to do to improve

In the table above we look at his walk, strikeout, and line drive rates over his career. While his strikeout rate dropped to 16.5% last year, so did his walk and line drive percentages. If you would like to assume that those three stats will even themselves back out to his recent norms, then you can also assume that his .325 batting average on balls in play will roughly stay the same, or even be a touch higher given the fact that his line drive rate was 4% lower than his two previous seasons.

In fact, Peralta’s 2011 was a strange year all around, and therefore very difficult to use when analyzing.

For example, his walk rate was 6.9%, which was lower than any other season in his career and his career average is 8.4%. His line drive rate was 19%, and as noted above, while it is in line with his earlier career average, it was 4% lower than it has been over the last two years, a time period that coincides with his steadily dropping strikeout rate. Simply put, it looks like he has improved his at bats by striking out less and hitting line drives more.

However, his batting average and on base percentage were higher than any other point in his career (.299/.345 to a career average of.268/.330) which throws all the other stats off and leaves us scratching our heads.

What he will do

Given his career, we can safely assume what his numbers will be around. There’s no 30 home run power, or 15 stolen base potential. He won’t suddenly walk 100 times, just as he won’t hit .330. So, all the stats above, while interesting, are kind of pointless, since we can assume what he will most likely produce.

Walkoff Woodward Bubblegum Card Prediction

PA

R

B2

B3

HR

RBI

575

70

30

1

18

75

BB

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

BABIP

45

1

.287

.341

.421

.325

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